Iraq War’s Aftermath Was a Disaster for the U.S.
It has now been over two and a half decades since the US invaded Iraq, and the conflict is now viewed as a cautionary tale about the limitations of military intervention.
In the face of the rising conflict with Iran, many analysts believe that the strategic mistakes that led to the Iraq War could once again lead to instability, huge costs, and geopolitical consequences. “Poor planning, overly ambitious goals, not thinking through the aftermath. These are the parallels that Richard Haass sees between the 2003 U.S. invastion of Iraq and its current air campaign against Iran,” according to NPR News.
The similarities between the two conflicts are starting to become difficult to ignore.
Military Victory
When the United States launched its invasion of Iraq in 2003, the military campaign was a rapid success for the United States military. The United States military quickly defeated Iraq’s military forces, toppled Saddam Hussein’s government, and took control of Baghdad in a matter of weeks.
The military campaign was a success from a military perspective because Saddam Hussein was captured, tried, and executed for his war crimes, and the Iraqi government fell in a mere 21 days.
The political aftermath of the war was a different story altogether. The United States quickly discovered that it was occupying a nation in a state of chaos.
The toll of the war, in terms of human and financial losses, is staggering. The losses for America were in excess of 4,400 men and women, and estimates of civilian losses in Iraq range in the hundreds of thousands as the violence and chaos of the aftermath of the invasion consumed the nation. The total cost of the war to the United States is now known to have been in excess of $2 trillion, with estimates of total long-term costs as high as $6 trillion.
The results of the war are still a point of contention today. The nation of Iraq still struggles with internal conflicts and the strength of its militia, many of which are supported by Iran. “The lesson, then and now, is not that empires cannot destroy. It’s that destruction and governance are entirely different enterprises. And confusing them is how empires exhaust themselves,” according to The Conversation.
Strategic Gains
Ironically, the most significant long-term result of the Iraq War has been the rise of Iranian influence in the region.
The removal of Saddam Hussein paved the way for the rise of political parties and militias that have ties with Iran and gained greater control in Iraq. Today, there are several Iranian-backed militias that operate openly in Iraq and even have representatives in the security and political structures of the country.
For the opponents of the Iraq War, the rise of Iranian influence is evidence that the U.S. invasion, which was partly aimed at weakening Iran, has failed.
Courtesy of RafahKid Kid (Flickr CC0)The Iraq War is now being seen as a precursor to the ongoing war with Iran.
Complex Opponent
Unlike Iraq in 2003, the country is much more powerful and much larger in size. It has a population of close to 90 million people and has many alliances in the region. It has a very complex and powerful proxy network in the Middle East.
Iran’s military structure is very different from Iraq’s. Unlike Iraq, where Saddam Hussein was the head of the country’s military structure, in Iran, there is a powerful force known as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. It plays a very important role in the country’s politics and economy.
It would be extremely hard to dissolve the Revolutionary Guard Corps even if the political leadership in the country were overthrown. Security experts are concerned that the collapse of the country’s government would result in a power vacuum in the country.
Political Reconstruction
One of the most important things that can be learned from the Iraq War is that “it’s much easier to destroy a government than it is to build a new one.”
In the case of Iraq, the United States had difficulty in establishing a stable political system after the dismantling of the old government and security apparatus in the country. This led to the rise of insurgencies and militant groups in Iraq, such as the eventual establishment of the Islamic State.
Analysts are worried that a similar process may be seen in Iran, especially if the war results in a weakening or dismantling of the country’s central government, without a new political system ready to assume power in the country.
Exiled opposition groups, while active in their efforts in other countries, may not have enough domestic political support in Iran, making them ineffective even if the current government is dismantled.
Nationalism
Another factor which might influence the situation is the strong influence of nationalism during a war.
It has been a known fact, as stated by various political scientists, that any kind of foreign aggression tends to increase the popularity of governments, even if they are not popular, because of a so-called “rally around the flag” effect.
In the case of Iran, as was shown during various years of protest rallies against the government, the people are not satisfied with the current government regime. However, in a situation where there are some external military pressures, people who are not supposed to be supporters of the current government might still be on its side.
Warning From History
However, the Iraq War serves as a harsh reminder that the outcome of a war cannot be measured by military victories alone.
While military victories do not always ensure a stable government, the gap between the two realities has the potential to define global politics over decades.
In the case of Iraq, while the US emerged victorious in toppling a dictator, it was not able to ensure a stable alternative government, leaving the nation still reeling from the effects of war.
As the war with Iran intensifies, many experts believe that the most important questions are not those surrounding the start of the war, but its conclusion.
While history has shown that a clear strategy on what to do after a war is crucial, military victories are not enough to ensure stability, both in the Middle Eastern nation and the US itself.
By David Loran Jr
A successful Editor-in-Chief, journalist for over 6 years, writing about important topics that are going on within the U.S. and beyond.
Sources:
NPR News: Is Iran another Iraq?
The Conversation: Iraq war’s aftermath was a disaster for the US – the Iran war is headed in the same direction
Featured Image Courtesy of Bryan Jones’ Flickr Page – Creative Commons License
Inset Image Courtesy of RafahKid Kid’s Flickr Page – Creative Commons License
