The decision to launch a covert military action to extract Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela ended a years-long standoff with Caracas and created an entirely new barrage of questions: What does this mean for the rest of Latin America? How will China, Iran, and Russia recalibrate? How will this action impact global energy markets? Has this marked a permanent shift in U.S. power?
Aside from announcing the U.S. will be “running” Venezuela, President Donald Trump has stated little to convey what that means to the United States and the rest of the world. Politic Magazine gathered a range of experts for questions and this is what they said, “The axis of authoritarians…may feel additional urgency to prove their value.”
The “National Security Strategy of the United States of America” opens with a letter from President Trump stating the U.S. has brought “our nation – and the world – back from the brink of catastrophe and disaster.” What follows in the letter is a declaration to make America “safer, richer, freer, greater, and more powerful than ever before.”
‘What Is American Strategy?’
This portion of the document first defines strategy as “a concrete, realistic plan that explains the essential connection between ends and means.”
- What is the desire?
- What tools are available or can be created to achieve the desired outcomes?
- “The purpose of foreign policy is the protection of core national interests; that is the sole focus of this strategy.”
It is no coincidence Trump sent forces to arrest Maduro hours after the Venezuelan leader met with China’s special envoy. This operation was meant to send a clear message to China.
Justin Logan, director of defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, believes the Maduro arrest under the indictment of the U.S. could b enacted by China on a Taiwanese leader. In addition, Trump’s unpredictability could deepen the belief the United States is a volatile government in foreign policy and leaders may choose to develop closer relationships with Russia or China.
Senior fellow at the Watson School for International and Public Affairs and New York Times foreign correspondent, Stephen Kinzer, predicts the fall of the Cuban political system without Venezuelan oil. Trump’s resource-focused presidency sees Venezuelan oil as a great prize and a geopolitical weapon when he demands countries stop buying oil from Iran and Russia. This would create submissive clients out of Venezuela and Cuba or turn Latin American into a bloody battleground with a new generation of Latin Americans seeking to defy Augusto Cesar Sandino’s “eagle with larcenous claws.”
History repeats itself and the United States has always made an exception for Latin America, acknowledging special interests within its own hemisphere. Previous presidents have garnered the power of the Monroe Doctrine to justify military responses and regime changes in Latin America.
The National Security Strategy plans to “deny non-Hemispheric competitors.” This means the goal is to cut Russia and China from accessing the region completely. The ability of the U.S. to predict the aftermath of a targeted regime change is poor at best. The idea of the U.S.- co-opted government in Venezuela could spark chaos in the streets or a military coup. It is too early to speculate and what message will that send U.S. adversaries?
By Jeanette Vietti
Sources:
Politico: Trump’s Attack on Venezuela Could Change the World. Here’s How.
WhiteHouse.Gov: National Security Strategy
Featured Image Courtesy of John’s Flickr Page – Creative Commons License
