Possible Scenarios for Iran
It is rare for any war to conclude in an unambiguous manner. Thus, the real test for Iran will begin after the war with the U.S. and Israel concludes.
It is believed that the Islamic Republic could take various routes depending on the political, economic, military, and public scenarios that might emerge. Experts are of the opinion that there are a number of scenarios that might emerge after the war concludes. Some of the most probable scenarios are enumerated below:
Iranian Government Survives
One possible outcome is that the current government survives the conflict and becomes even more strict and powerful. When a war comes to an end, it’s common for governments to tighten their grip on the people.
They’re often worried that folks might start speaking out against them or causing unrest. Take what happened in Tehran following the conflict, for instance. The government started cracking down on its citizens, arresting more people, keeping a closer eye on them, and limiting their freedoms.
The leaders were worried that people might begin protesting or getting into trouble, so they attempted to gain more control over the country. Something like this could happen anywhere, not just in Tehran.
The government might feel that they need to get their country back into order after the war, but sometimes this can cause problems for the people. It is a thin line between keeping the peace and respecting the people.
If something like this happens, the government could say that the fact that they survived the war is a victory for them. The officials could say that they resisted the strong enemies that attacked their country.
However, surviving the war does not mean life becomes easier for ordinary people. The conflict has already caused economic damage, including destroyed infrastructure and huge financial losses.
To maintain control, the government might Increase censorship Expand security forces Arrest critics or protesters Strengthen the power of the military and intelligence services In this situation, Tehran is likely to stay in control, but its government will probably become even stricter.
Courtesy Of Sunshine Syrie (Flickr CC0)Returns to Diplomacy and Negotiations
Another possible outcome could be that they decide to ease tensions and pursue diplomacy with Western countries. After wars, countries may decide to return to diplomacy because they need to rebuild their economy. The leaders of Tehran understand that if they have long-term conflicts with powerful countries, they may be negatively impacted economically.
Experts believe that Tehran’s leaders might face a tough decision to either continue their confrontation or seek negotiations with the USA and other nations. If negotiations are to be the new way to go, many things might happen like New nuclear negotiations might begin Sanctions might be relieved Regional tensions might ease Tehran might seek to mend relations with certain nations. This does not necessarily mean that Tehran would immediately become an intimate friend to Western nations.
However, it could potentially lead to a more peaceful time and fewer direct fights between them. This could be a turning point for ordinary Tehran’s, potentially leading to economic gains for many of them.
A Long Cold Conflict
Another possibility is that the conflict may technically be over, but the fighting may not have entirely ceased. Instead of a peace treaty, Iran, Israel, and the U.S may go back into a lower-level conflict.
Experts have said that conflicts in the region may have moved into a “shadow war” where both sides may not engage in full-scale battles with each other but may still be attacking each other indirectly. In this case, they may retaliate against attacks by:
- Cyber operations
- Regional militias or proxy groups
- Intelligence operations
- Missile or drone strikes in limited situations
Political Crisis or Leadership Change
Internal Political Crisis or Leadership Change Wars can also cause a government to weaken internally. If the government of Tehran is held responsible for the loss or economic destruction, there could be an increase in internal political problems. There have already been internal problems in Tehran, including economic problems. There is also an increase in protests, especially among the young.
If the conflict causes a weakening of the government, there could be many different outcomes. New political leaders arise Factions vie for power Reform movement support increases There have already been problems with leadership in Iran, especially in times of political transition. Major changes in politics do not happen overnight; they occur slowly over time.
Economic Recovery or Economic Collapse
The economy will be one of the biggest factors shaping Tehran’s future after the conflict. In the past, when there was fighting, Tehran’s oil exports went down a lot and the country lost a huge amount of money.
Oil export is a vital issue for them as it supports the government’s spending and the overall economy. There could be two economic consequences: Economic Recovery If tensions ease and sanctions are lifted, the government could slowly recover its economy through: Increasing Oil Exports Attracting Foreign Investment Expanding Trade with Countries like China and Russia.
This could lead to a decrease in the frustration felt by the people and thus a stable country. If sanctions are strong and the country’s infrastructure is affected, the country could experience:
- High Inflation Rates
- Unemployment Shortage of Goods
- Decline in the Standard of Living
In such a situation, the government could be pressurized to make political changes.
By William Hernandez
Journalist for Vlixx Magazine, reporting on news from around the world, ensuring timely, accurate, and detailed information to keep the public informed and educated.
Sources:
DW: Possible scenarios for Iran once war with US, Israel ends
CNBC: The U.S. insists the Iran conflict won’t be a ‘forever war.’ Experts beg to differ
Featured Image Courtesy of Beshef Flickr Page – Creative Commons License
Inset Image Courtesy of Sunshine Syrie Flickr Page – Creative Commons License
